Driverless robotaxis now carry paying passengers in a few US cities, and ride-hailing apps already use algorithms to set prices and match drivers. Most rides are still driven by people, who also help passengers with bags, mobility needs and directions.
The short answer: current evidence does not point to AI replacing taxi drivers in the next decade. The ILO's 2025 index puts car, taxi and van drivers in gradient 1, its lowest exposure band, with a score of 0.28. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 12 percent growth for taxi drivers from 2025 to 2035, and about 55,900 openings a year for taxi drivers, shuttle drivers and chauffeurs. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
How exposed taxi drivers are
The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Car, Taxi and Van Drivers | Gradient 1 | 0.28 |
The ILO index measures generative AI. Self-driving vehicles are a different technology and are not what this score covers.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Taxi drivers | Grow 12% | In total |
| Shuttle drivers and chauffeurs | Grow 7% | In total |
| Taxi drivers, shuttle drivers and chauffeurs, total | Grow 9% | About 55,900 |
The BLS links growth to ride-hailing demand and to more older adults who need rides to medical appointments. Its outlook does not project job losses from driverless vehicles over this decade.
Where AI and automation are showing up
- Ride-hailing apps that match riders, set prices and plan routes.
- Navigation that adjusts for traffic in real time.
- Driver assistance and safety features in newer cars.
- Driverless robotaxi services in a limited number of cities.
What stays with the driver
- Passengers: help with luggage, wheelchairs and people who need extra care.
- Judgment on the road: unusual situations, bad weather and places software struggles with.
- Service: local knowledge and a person to talk to.
- Checking tech help: navigation and app instructions can be confidently wrong, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.
How the job is changing
Most driving work now runs through apps, and driverless services are expanding slowly city by city. That is worth watching, but the BLS still projects growth this decade.
See also EU Platform Work Directive (EU rules for ride-hail and delivery apps), will AI replace truck drivers?, will AI replace bus drivers? and will AI replace logistics jobs?
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for taxi drivers and chauffeurs at $37,960 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The typical education needed to enter is: no formal educational credential. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace taxi drivers?
Not on current evidence for this decade. The ILO puts drivers in gradient 1, and the BLS projects 12 percent growth for taxi drivers from 2025 to 2035.
Will robotaxis replace ride-hailing and taxi drivers?
Driverless services run in a few cities, but the BLS outlook does not project job losses from them over this decade.
How many driver openings are expected?
The BLS projects about 55,900 openings a year for taxi drivers, shuttle drivers and chauffeurs combined.
What driving work stays human?
Helping passengers, handling unusual road situations, local service and checking app instructions.