Self-driving buses make headlines, but bus driving is more than steering: it is passengers, schedules, safety and a vehicle full of people in traffic. AI today mostly helps behind the wheel with planning, scheduling and driver assistance.
The short answer: current evidence does not point to AI replacing bus drivers. The ILO's 2025 index rates bus and tram drivers as not exposed to generative AI, at 0.18. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 2 percent growth for bus drivers from 2025 to 2035, with about 77,600 openings a year, mostly to replace drivers who leave or retire. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
How exposed bus drivers are
The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Bus and Tram Drivers | Not exposed | 0.18 |
| Car, Taxi and Van Drivers | Gradient 1 | 0.28 |
The ILO index measures generative AI, not self-driving vehicles, which are a separate technology these scores do not cover.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Bus drivers | Grow 2% | About 77,600 |
Where AI is helping bus operations
- Planning routes and timetables from ridership data.
- Real-time arrival information for passengers.
- Driver assistance such as collision warnings.
- Maintenance alerts from vehicle data.
What stays with the bus driver
- Driving: following the route and schedule safely in real traffic and weather.
- Passengers: picking up and dropping off, helping riders who need it and handling conflict.
- Safety: following transit rules and safety procedures, and checking tires, lights and oil.
- Checking: schedules and assistance systems can be wrong, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.
How the job is changing
Drivers increasingly work with onboard screens, assistance systems and dispatch apps. School, transit and charter driving all keep the passenger-care side of the job, which technology does not cover.
See also will AI replace truck drivers?, will AI replace dispatchers?, will AI replace pilots? and jobs safe from AI
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for bus drivers at $49,390 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The typical education needed to enter is: high school diploma or equivalent. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace bus drivers?
Not on current evidence. The ILO rates bus and tram drivers not exposed to generative AI (0.18), and the BLS projects 2 percent US growth from 2025 to 2035.
Will self-driving buses replace drivers?
The ILO scores do not cover self-driving vehicles, and the BLS still projects about 77,600 bus driver openings a year.
How is AI used in bus transit?
For route and timetable planning, arrival information, driver assistance and maintenance alerts.
What bus work stays human?
Safe driving, caring for passengers, safety checks and checking automated systems.