Truck drivers have heard for years that self-driving trucks are coming for their jobs. Now generative AI is added to the worry. It helps to separate the two, because they are different technologies, and the main data sources on AI and jobs measure only one of them.
The short answer: the available data does not point to AI replacing truck drivers in the near term. The ILO's 2025 index classes heavy truck and lorry drivers as minimally exposed to generative AI, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects growth for both heavy and tractor-trailer drivers and delivery truck drivers from 2025 to 2035. Self-driving trucks are a separate question that these figures do not answer. Forecasts can change.
Generative AI and self-driving trucks are different things
The ILO index measures exposure to generative AI: systems that produce text, images, code and similar output, such as chatbots and AI assistants. It does not measure self-driving vehicles or robotics, so a low score for truck drivers says that generative AI cannot do much of a driver's work, not that self-driving trucks will or will not arrive (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025). Autonomous trucks depend on different technology, testing and regulation, and this page does not predict when or where they will be used.
How exposed transport jobs are to generative AI
These figures are from the ILO's refined global index of generative AI exposure, which scores tasks from 0 to 1 and sorts occupations into bands from not exposed up to gradient 4, the most exposed.
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Transport Clerks | Gradient 3 | 0.50 |
| Car, Taxi and Van Drivers | Gradient 1 | 0.28 |
| Heavy Truck and Lorry Drivers | Minimal exposure | 0.24 |
| Bus and Tram Drivers | Not exposed | 0.18 |
| Freight Handlers | Not exposed | 0.14 |
Driving itself is physical work in a changing environment, which generative AI does not do. The office side of transport, such as transport clerks handling documents and schedules, is much more exposed. Car, taxi and van drivers sit in gradient 1, which the ILO uses for jobs with low overall exposure but significant variability between tasks.
Hiring outlook to 2035
The BLS projects employment of heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers to grow 4 percent from 2025 to 2035, with about 214,500 openings a year. The reasons it gives are a growing economy and population raising demand for goods, increased demand for freight transportation to and from ports, warehouses and distribution sites, and online shopping remaining a common way to buy many products (BLS, heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers).
For delivery truck drivers and driver/sales workers, the BLS projects 7 percent growth, much faster than average, with about 152,700 openings a year, driven by continued growth of e-commerce, demand for faster and more convenient delivery, and mobile ordering apps for groceries, takeout and other goods (BLS, delivery truck drivers).
Where generative AI shows up in trucking
- Dispatch messages and load updates written or summarized by AI.
- Route and schedule suggestions in fleet software.
- Drafting paperwork, delivery notes and incident reports.
- Answering drivers' routine questions about pay, policies and equipment.
- Translating instructions for drivers who work in more than one language.
These mostly change the office work around the driver, and transport clerks are more exposed than drivers.
What stays with the driver
- Driving safely in traffic, weather and road conditions.
- Loading, securing and checking cargo and the vehicle.
- Handling the unexpected: breakdowns, closures, accidents and difficult deliveries.
- Dealing with customers at the delivery point, especially for driver/sales workers.
- Checking AI suggestions: a route or instruction from software can be wrong. See checking AI output.
The BLS also notes that all long-haul truck drivers must have a commercial driver's license (CDL) (BLS).
The job from here
For now, AI is changing the systems drivers work with more than the driving itself: more messages, suggestions and monitoring come from software. That raises questions about how drivers are monitored and evaluated; see AI at work and workers' rights. Whether self-driving trucks change the picture will depend on technology and regulation that this data does not cover.
Related guides: jobs least exposed to AI, will AI take my job? and blue collar vs white collar vs digital collar.
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for heavy and tractor trailer truck drivers at $58,640 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. Across the 2 BLS occupations this page covers, median pay ranges from $43,950 to $58,640. The typical education needed to enter differs between the 2 BLS occupations this page covers. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace truck drivers?
Not on current evidence for generative AI. The ILO classes heavy truck drivers as minimally exposed, and the BLS projects 4 percent US growth for heavy and tractor-trailer drivers from 2025 to 2035. Self-driving trucks are a separate question.
Does the ILO AI index cover self-driving trucks?
No. The ILO index measures exposure to generative AI, such as chatbots and AI assistants. It does not measure autonomous vehicles or robotics.
How exposed are truck drivers to generative AI?
In the ILO 2025 index, heavy truck and lorry drivers score 0.24, in the minimal exposure band. Transport clerks score 0.50, in gradient 3.
Will delivery driver jobs grow?
The BLS projects 7 percent growth for delivery truck drivers and driver/sales workers from 2025 to 2035, driven by e-commerce and demand for fast delivery.
How is AI changing trucking work?
Mostly through software around the driver: dispatch messages, route suggestions, paperwork and monitoring. Driving, loading and handling problems on the road stay with the driver.