Ships already navigate with electronic charts, automatic tracking and route optimization software, and autonomous vessels are being tested. Captains, mates, pilots and crews still command vessels, handle cargo and respond when weather, traffic or machinery go wrong.
The short answer: current evidence does not point to AI replacing ship captains or crews. The ILO's 2025 index rates ships' deck officers and pilots (0.29) and ships' deck crews (0.14) as not exposed. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 4 percent growth for captains, mates and pilots of water vessels from 2025 to 2035, with about 8,600 openings a year across water transportation jobs. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
How exposed ship captains and crews are
The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Ships' Deck Officers and Pilots | Not exposed | 0.29 |
| Ships' Deck Crews and Related Workers | Not exposed | 0.14 |
The ILO index measures generative AI. Autonomous navigation and remote-controlled vessels are a different technology and are not what this score covers.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Captains, mates and pilots of water vessels | Grow 4% | In total |
| Sailors and marine oilers | Grow 3% | In total |
| Ship engineers | Grow 3% | In total |
| Water transportation workers, total | Grow 4% | About 8,600 |
The BLS says demand for bulk commodities such as iron ore and grain is a key factor: when it is high, more of these workers are needed, and when it slows, fewer are. Its outlook does not mention AI or autonomous ships.
Where AI and automation are helping
- Route planning around weather and fuel use.
- Collision warnings and traffic tracking.
- Engine monitoring and maintenance planning.
- Logs, cargo paperwork and port documents.
What stays with ship captains and crews
- Command: decisions about safety, weather and the crew.
- Seamanship: docking, harbor piloting and handling a ship in bad conditions.
- Emergencies: fire, flooding, injury and rescue.
- Checking AI help: AI answers about rules or routes can be wrong, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.
How the job is changing
Bridges carry more electronic aids and ships send more data ashore, so officers spend more time supervising systems. Hiring still follows trade and commodity demand.
See also will AI replace pilots?, will AI replace truck drivers? and will AI replace logistics jobs?
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for water transportation occupations at $71,860 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The BLS says the education needed to enter varies; its profile explains the routes in. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace ship captains?
Not on current evidence. The ILO rates ships' deck officers and pilots as not exposed, and the BLS projects 4 percent growth for captains, mates and pilots from 2025 to 2035.
What drives water transportation jobs?
The BLS points to demand for bulk commodities such as iron ore and grain.
How many openings are expected?
The BLS projects about 8,600 openings a year for water transportation workers.
What ship work stays human?
Command decisions, ship handling, emergencies and checking AI answers.