Sheet metal shops already run computer-controlled cutters, brakes and plasma tables, and software lays out ductwork from a building model. On a job site, sheet metal workers still measure, fit, hang and seal ducts, roofing and flashing in buildings that never match the drawings exactly.
The short answer: AI is not the main pressure on this trade; shop automation and prefabrication are. The ILO's 2025 index rates sheet metal workers as not exposed to generative AI, with a score of 0.21. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 3 percent growth from 2025 to 2035, about as fast as average, with about 9,800 openings a year. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
How exposed sheet metal workers are
The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Sheet Metal Workers | Not exposed | 0.21 |
The ILO index measures generative AI. Automated cutting and bending machines are a different technology and are not what this score covers.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Sheet metal workers | Grow 3% | About 9,800 |
The BLS expects a continuing need to install and maintain energy-efficient HVAC systems in new and existing buildings. It also says prefabricated duct systems will limit the need for sheet metal workers on residential sites, and that some fabrication equipment is automated, further reducing the need for workers outside construction.
Where automation is showing up
- Computer-controlled cutting, punching and bending in the shop.
- Software that turns building models into duct layouts and cut lists.
- Prefabricated duct sections that arrive ready to install.
- Estimating and material take-off from digital plans.
What stays with sheet metal workers
- Field fitting: making parts work in real buildings with real obstacles.
- Installation: hanging, sealing and connecting ducts, roofing and flashing.
- Service: diagnosing and repairing existing systems.
- Checking AI help: generated layouts and take-offs can be wrong, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.
How the job is changing
More of the cutting happens in automated shops, and more of the field work is installing and servicing efficient HVAC systems. Workers who can read digital plans and run computer-controlled equipment have more options.
See also will AI replace HVAC technicians?, will AI replace welders? and will AI replace roofers?
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for sheet metal workers at $61,800 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The typical education needed to enter is: high school diploma or equivalent. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace sheet metal workers?
Not on current evidence. The ILO rates sheet metal workers as not exposed, and the BLS projects 3 percent growth from 2025 to 2035.
Does the BLS mention automation for sheet metal jobs?
Yes. It says some fabrication equipment is automated and that prefabricated ducts limit the need for workers on residential sites.
How many sheet metal openings are expected?
The BLS projects about 9,800 openings a year, on average, over the decade.
What sheet metal work stays human?
Fitting and installing on site, servicing systems and checking automated layouts.