Welding robots have worked on factory lines for decades, so welders have heard the automation question before. Generative AI is a different kind of tool: it writes and analyzes rather than holding a torch. The answer depends on which kind of automation you mean and where the welding happens.
The short answer: generative AI is unlikely to replace welders on current evidence. The ILO's 2025 index rates welders and flame cutters as not exposed, at 0.13. Robots are a separate story: the US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 2 percent growth from 2025 to 2035 and says automation in manufacturing may limit overall demand. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
How exposed welders are
The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Welders and Flame Cutters | Not exposed | 0.13 |
| Structural Metal Preparers and Erectors | Not exposed | 0.11 |
The ILO index measures generative AI, not robots. Welding robots are physical automation, which these scores do not cover.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Welders, cutters, solderers and brazers | Grow 2% | About 40,300 |
Most openings are expected to come from replacing workers who retire or change jobs.
Where AI and automation are touching the work
- Robotic welding of repeated parts on production lines.
- Camera and sensor checks of weld quality.
- Generative AI explaining procedures, codes and blueprints as a study aid.
- Drafting job reports and inspection paperwork.
What stays with the welder
- Varied and field work: repairs, construction sites, pipelines and one-off jobs where every joint is different.
- Reading the job: interpreting blueprints and specifications and measuring parts.
- Control: monitoring the weld and adjusting heat as it happens.
- Inspection: checking structures and materials before and after welding.
- Checking AI help: generative AI can give confident wrong answers, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). Procedures and safety steps need checking against the real standard. See checking AI output.
How the job is changing
Repetitive factory welding is where automation bites, while field and repair work stays hands-on. Welders who can set up, program or maintain welding robots, or who hold skills for varied structural and pipe work, have more options.
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Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for welders cutters solderers and brazers at $53,750 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The typical education needed to enter is: high school diploma or equivalent. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace welders?
Generative AI is unlikely to. The ILO rates welders not exposed (0.13). The BLS projects 2 percent growth from 2025 to 2035, noting that manufacturing automation may limit demand.
Will robots replace welders?
Robots already handle repeated welds on production lines, which is why the BLS expects automation to limit demand. Field, repair and varied work remains hands-on.
How many welding openings are expected?
The BLS projects about 40,300 openings a year for welders, cutters, solderers and brazers.
What welding work stays human?
Field and repair work, reading blueprints, controlling the weld, inspection and checking any AI guidance.