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Will AI replace retail workers? Stores, online sales and the data

Updated

Retail sales work is helping people choose: what fits, what works, what is in stock and what it costs. AI now writes product descriptions, answers questions on store websites and suggests what to buy next. Shoppers who come into a store still meet a person on the floor.

The short answer: current evidence does not point to AI replacing retail workers, though online shopping is holding store jobs flat. The ILO's 2025 index puts shop sales assistants in gradient 1, its lowest exposed band, at 0.38. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects little or no change for retail sales workers from 2025 to 2035, with about 550,600 openings a year. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.

How exposed retail workers are

The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).

Occupation (ISCO-08)ILO categoryMean task score (0 to 1)
Shop Sales AssistantsGradient 10.38
Shelf FillersNot exposed0.20

The ILO index measures generative AI. The bigger force on store jobs is the shift to online sales, which these scores do not capture.

What the BLS projects

OccupationProjected change 2025 to 2035Openings a year
Retail sales workersLittle or no change (0%)About 550,600

The BLS expects online sales to keep limiting growth in the number of physical stores, while salespersons are still needed to help customers and complete sales because many people still shop in person.

Where AI is helping in retail

  • Product descriptions, sizing guides and answers to common questions online.
  • Recommendations based on what shoppers looked at or bought.
  • Stock checks across stores and stock forecasts.
  • Training notes and quick look-ups of policies for staff.

What stays with the retail worker

  • Advice: recommending products based on what a customer actually wants and explaining how they work.
  • Service: greeting people, answering questions and explaining sales, payment and exchange policies.
  • The floor: displays, stock on shelves and the store looking ready to buy from.
  • Checking AI help: product answers and stock figures can be confidently wrong, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.

How the job is changing

Store staff increasingly handle online orders for pickup, returns from web purchases and questions that started on a phone. Product knowledge and customer service matter more than speed at the till. For checkout work, see will AI replace cashiers?

See also AI in scheduling and shift allocation, will AI replace sales jobs?, will AI replace customer service? and jobs safe from AI

Pay and how to get in

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for retail sales workers at $35,560 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The typical education needed to enter is: no formal educational credential. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.

Questions and answers

Will AI replace retail workers?

Not on current evidence. The ILO puts shop sales assistants in gradient 1 (0.38), and the BLS projects little or no change for retail sales workers from 2025 to 2035.

Why are retail jobs not growing?

The BLS says the rise in online sales limits growth in the number of physical stores.

How many retail sales openings are expected?

The BLS projects about 550,600 openings a year, mostly to replace workers who leave.

What retail work stays human?

Product advice, customer service, the sales floor and checking AI answers about products and stock.

Sources