AI now writes outreach emails, researches prospects, logs calls and suggests the next best action, so salespeople reasonably ask how much of the job is left. The data shows a split: phone and transactional selling is highly exposed, while complex and relationship selling is less so, and US projections are flat to slightly positive, with AI named as one limit on growth.
The short answer: AI is unlikely to replace sales as a profession on current evidence, but it is reshaping it. The ILO's 2025 index places contact center salespersons in its highest exposure gradient and commercial sales representatives in gradient 2. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects little or no change for wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives and for retail sales workers, and 3 percent growth for sales engineers, and says AI may limit growth. Routine prospecting and admin are moving to AI; trust, negotiation and complex deals stay with people. Projections can change.
How exposed sales jobs are
From the ILO's 2025 index: tasks are scored 0 to 1 for generative AI exposure, and occupations banded up to gradient 4, the most exposed.
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO band | Mean task score |
|---|---|---|
| Contact Centre Salespersons | Gradient 4 (highest) | 0.61 |
| ICT Sales Professionals | Gradient 3 | 0.51 |
| Technical and Medical Sales Professionals (excluding ICT) | Gradient 3 | 0.50 |
| Commercial Sales Representatives | Gradient 2 | 0.49 |
| Sales and Marketing Managers | Gradient 2 | 0.41 |
| Shop Sales Assistants | Gradient 1 | 0.38 |
The more a sales role happens through scripts, phone and text, the higher the exposure; in-person and complex selling score lower.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives | Little or no change | About 123,400 |
| Sales engineers | Grow 3% | About 3,800 |
| Retail sales workers | Little or no change | About 550,600 |
For wholesale and manufacturing sales reps, the BLS says online sales are mostly expected to complement rather than replace face-to-face selling, that a rising volume of sales and a wider range of products will create demand, and that advances in AI and automation technologies such as chatbots may limit employment growth. For sales engineers, it expects demand to help promote technologically sophisticated products, but notes that as businesses integrate AI tools, some tasks such as market research may become more efficient, and that growth may be limited by AI. For retail, the main pressure it names is e-commerce, while noting that many consumers are still expected to visit physical stores.
Sales tasks AI is taking on
- Researching prospects and accounts.
- Drafting outreach emails and follow-ups.
- Logging calls and updating the CRM from notes.
- Summarizing calls and suggesting next steps.
- Answering routine product questions by chat.
- Drafting proposals and quotes.
What stays with the salesperson
- Trust: buyers commit to people they believe.
- Discovery: finding the real need behind the request.
- Negotiation and handling objections in real time.
- Complex deals with several decision makers and long cycles.
- Checking claims: AI can produce confident but wrong statements about products or prices, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). A wrong promise in a proposal is the seller's problem. See checking AI output.
- Customer data care: deciding what prospect data AI tools may see. See AI agents and personal data.
Where sales is heading
High-volume, scripted selling is where AI and chatbots take over most, and those roles face the most pressure. For account managers, sales engineers and anyone selling complex products, AI is becoming a research and admin assistant that leaves more time with customers. Salespeople who know their product and customer deeply and use AI for the groundwork have the advantage.
See also will AI replace customer service jobs?, will AI replace marketing jobs? and will AI take my job?
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives at $76,460 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. Across the 3 BLS occupations this page covers, median pay ranges from $35,560 to $124,900. The typical education needed to enter differs between the 3 BLS occupations this page covers. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace sales jobs?
Not as a profession on current evidence. The BLS projects little or no change for US wholesale and manufacturing sales reps and 3 percent growth for sales engineers from 2025 to 2035, noting AI may limit growth.
How exposed are salespeople to AI?
In ILO data, contact center salespersons are in the highest gradient (0.61), commercial sales representatives in gradient 2 (0.49) and shop sales assistants in gradient 1 (0.38).
Will AI replace sales reps?
AI is taking over research, outreach drafts and admin. The BLS says online sales mostly complement rather than replace face-to-face selling, though AI and chatbots may limit growth.
Will AI replace sales engineers?
The BLS projects 3 percent growth, with demand for selling sophisticated technology, while noting AI may make tasks like market research more efficient and limit growth.
What sales work can AI not do?
Building trust, discovering the real need, negotiating, handling complex multi-person deals and standing behind what is promised.