Umpires, referees and other sports officials preside over competitive athletic and sporting events to help maintain standards of play. They enforce the rules, make calls in real time, keep players safe and manage the game. Video replay already helps officials in some sports. Running the game on the field stays with people.
The short answer: technology assists the calls, and the BLS expects growth. The ILO's 2025 index rates sports coaches, instructors and officials, the closest group, at minimal exposure with a score of 0.37. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 5 percent growth for umpires, referees and other sports officials from 2025 to 2035, faster than average, with about 4,300 openings a year. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
How exposed referees are
The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Coaches, Instructors and Officials | Minimal exposure | 0.37 |
The ILO scores groups of occupations, so this is the closest group for umpires, referees and other sports officials, not a score for the job title itself.
The ILO index measures generative AI, not robots or automated machines.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Umpires, referees, and other sports officials | Grow 5% | About 4,300 |
The BLS expects demand to rise with growing interest in college sports, professional sports and sports recreation, and with more athletes taking part. It notes that school athletic budgets can be cut, but that fundraisers, booster clubs and parents sometimes make up shortfalls. It says officials in some sports may use video replay to help make the correct call. Its outlook does not mention AI.
Where technology is helping
- Video replay to review close calls, in sports that use it.
- Training with recorded games to study positioning and decisions.
- Scheduling and assigning officials to games.
What stays with referees
- Game management: controlling tempers, pace and safety on the field.
- Judgment calls: applying the rules to what actually happened.
- Youth and amateur games: most games have no replay system at all.
- Checking AI help: generated rule summaries can be wrong, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.
How the job is changing
At the top levels, more calls are reviewed with technology, so officials work with replay staff and systems. At most levels, the official on the field is still the whole system. This page is general information, not career advice.
See also will AI replace coaches?, will AI replace athletic trainers? and will AI replace recreation workers?
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for umpires referees and other sports officials at $40,710 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The typical education needed to enter is: high school diploma or equivalent. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace referees?
Not on current projections. The BLS projects 5 percent growth for umpires, referees and other sports officials from 2025 to 2035.
How exposed are referees to AI?
The ILO rates sports coaches, instructors and officials, the closest group, at minimal exposure with a score of 0.37.
How many openings are expected?
About 4,300 a year on average over the decade, according to the BLS.
Does technology make the calls?
The BLS says officials in some sports may use video replay to help make the correct call. The official still runs the game.