Manicurists and pedicurists, often called nail technicians, clean, shape and decorate fingernails and toenails. The work is close, hands-on and repeated client by client, which is the kind of task generative AI does not do.
The short answer: AI is not set to replace nail technicians. The ILO's 2025 index rates beauticians and related workers as not exposed, with a score of 0.18. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 9 percent growth for manicurists and pedicurists from 2025 to 2035, much faster than average, with about 21,900 openings a year. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
How exposed manicurists are
The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Beauticians and Related Workers | Not exposed | 0.18 |
The ILO scores groups of occupations, so this is the closest group for manicurists and pedicurists, not a score for the job title itself. The ILO index measures generative AI, not robots or automated machines.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Manicurists and pedicurists | Grow 9% | About 21,900 |
The BLS projects employment to grow from 201,800 jobs in 2025 to 220,400 in 2035. Its outlook does not mention AI.
Where AI is helping
- Online booking, reminders and client records.
- Showing clients design ideas before an appointment.
- Drafting price lists and social media posts.
What stays with manicurists
- The service: shaping, filing, polishing and nail art by hand.
- Hygiene: cleaning and sanitizing tools between clients.
- Spotting problems: noticing skin or nail conditions and not working over them.
- Checking AI help: generated design ideas and posts can be wrong, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.
How the job is changing
Booking and marketing move online, while the service itself stays a hands-on skill. This page is general information, not career advice.
See also will AI replace hairdressers?, will AI replace fitness trainers? and will AI replace massage therapists?
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for manicurists and pedicurists at $35,760 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The typical education needed to enter is: postsecondary nondegree award. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace nail technicians?
Unlikely in the near term. The ILO rates beauticians as not exposed, and the BLS projects 9 percent growth for manicurists and pedicurists from 2025 to 2035.
How many manicurist jobs are there?
The BLS counts 201,800 jobs in 2025, projected to reach 220,400 in 2035.
How many openings are expected?
About 21,900 a year on average over the decade, according to the BLS.
What can AI do for a nail salon?
Mostly admin and marketing: booking, reminders and posts. The service stays hands-on.