Machine shops have used computer numerical control (CNC) for decades, and newer CAM software can suggest toolpaths from a 3D model. Someone still has to read the drawing, set up the machine, choose the tools and make sure the part is right.
The short answer: current evidence does not point to AI replacing machinists. The ILO's 2025 index rates metal working machine tool setters and toolmakers as not exposed to generative AI, with scores of 0.18 to 0.20. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a 1 percent decline for machinists and tool and die makers from 2025 to 2035, but still about 30,400 openings a year. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
How exposed machinists are
The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Toolmakers and Related Workers | Not exposed | 0.20 |
| Metal Working Machine Tool Setters and Operators | Not exposed | 0.18 |
The ILO index measures generative AI, not CNC machines or robots that load parts.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Machinists | Grow 1% | In total |
| Tool and die makers | Decline 9% | In total |
| Machinists and tool and die makers, total | Decline 1% | About 30,400 |
The BLS says all of those openings are expected to come from replacing workers who change jobs or retire. The split matters: machinist jobs are projected to hold steady while tool and die making shrinks.
Where AI and software are helping
- CAM software that proposes toolpaths, feeds and speeds.
- Simulation that catches collisions before a part is cut.
- Sensors that flag tool wear and machine problems.
- Drafting setup sheets and work instructions.
What stays with the machinist
- Setup: reading blueprints and CAD files, fixturing parts and aligning tools.
- Running the job: watching feed and speed, sound and chips, and adjusting as the cut goes.
- Quality: measuring parts and confirming they meet the specification.
- Checking AI help: suggested toolpaths and cutting data can be confidently wrong, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.
How the job is changing
More of the work moves to programming, setup and inspection as software handles routine toolpaths. Machinists who can program CNC machines and check the output are in a strong position.
See also will AI replace factory workers?, will AI replace welders? and will AI replace engineers?
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for machinists and tool and die makers at $59,620 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The BLS says the education needed to enter varies; its profile explains the routes in. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace machinists?
Not on current evidence. The ILO rates machine tool setters and toolmakers not exposed to generative AI, and the BLS projects about 30,400 openings a year from 2025 to 2035.
Is machining a dying trade?
The BLS projects machinist jobs to grow 1 percent and tool and die maker jobs to decline 9 percent from 2025 to 2035, a 1 percent dip overall.
Does CNC automation replace machinists?
CNC changes the work toward programming, setup and inspection rather than removing the need for skilled people.
What machining work stays human?
Setup, running and adjusting jobs, inspecting parts and checking software suggestions.