Diesel service technicians and mechanics inspect, repair and overhaul buses and trucks, or maintain and repair any type of diesel engine. Much of the work is hands-on: finding the fault, taking the engine or system apart and putting it right. Computer diagnostics are already part of the job. The wrench work stays with people.
The short answer: freight keeps trucks running, and electric vehicles matter more than AI here. The ILO's 2025 index rates motor vehicle mechanics and repairers, the closest group, as not exposed with a score of 0.18. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 4 percent growth for diesel service technicians and mechanics from 2025 to 2035, about as fast as average, with about 24,400 openings a year. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
How exposed diesel mechanics are
The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Motor Vehicle Mechanics and Repairers | Not exposed | 0.18 |
The ILO scores groups of occupations, so this is the closest group for diesel service technicians and mechanics, not a score for the job title itself.
The ILO index measures generative AI, not robots or automated machines.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Diesel service technicians and mechanics | Grow 4% | About 24,400 |
The BLS says diesel trucks will still be needed to carry freight where trains and pipelines are not available or economical, but that some demand may fall as firms move to trucks that need less maintenance, such as electric delivery vehicles. It notes that many shops already use computer diagnostic equipment. Its outlook does not mention AI.
Where AI is helping
- Reading fault codes and suggesting likely causes as a starting point.
- Finding the right repair procedure in long manuals.
- Drafting work orders and repair notes.
What stays with diesel mechanics
- Diagnosis: confirming the fault on the actual engine.
- Repairs: hands-on work on engines, brakes and transmissions.
- Safety: making sure a heavy vehicle is fit for the road.
- Checking AI help: suggested causes and specs can be wrong, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.
How the job is changing
Trucks carry more electronics and software, so diagnostic skills keep growing in importance. The BLS also points to a shift toward vehicles that need less maintenance, such as electric delivery vehicles. This page is general information, not career advice.
See also will AI replace mechanics?, will AI replace truck drivers? and will AI replace industrial machinery mechanics?
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for diesel service technicians and mechanics at $61,770 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The typical education needed to enter is: high school diploma or equivalent. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace diesel mechanics?
Not on current projections. The BLS projects 4 percent growth from 2025 to 2035.
How exposed are diesel mechanics to AI?
The ILO rates motor vehicle mechanics and repairers, the closest group, as not exposed with a score of 0.18.
How many openings are expected?
About 24,400 a year on average over the decade, according to the BLS.
What could reduce demand?
The BLS says some demand may fall as firms move to trucks that need less maintenance, such as electric delivery vehicles.