Elementary, middle and high school principals oversee all school operations, including daily school activities. They lead teachers and staff, set school goals, manage budgets and handle discipline, safety and parents. AI tools can help with reports, schedules and communication. Leading a school community stays with people.
The short answer: enrollment and budgets drive principal jobs, not AI. The ILO's 2025 index rates education managers, the closest group, at minimal exposure with a score of 0.36. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects little or no change in principal jobs from 2025 to 2035, with about 20,600 openings a year. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
How exposed principals are
The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Education Managers | Minimal exposure | 0.36 |
The ILO scores groups of occupations, so this is the closest group for school principals, not a score for the job title itself.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Elementary, middle, and high school principals | Little or no change (0%) | About 20,600 |
The BLS says employment will depend on student enrollment, the number of schools, and state and local budgets. Districts may consolidate or close schools when budgets are tight, and open more when there is a surplus. Its outlook does not mention AI.
Where AI is helping
- Drafting newsletters, letters and reports.
- Building schedules and summarizing school data.
- Preparing first drafts of plans and policies.
What stays with principals
- Leadership: hiring, supporting and evaluating teachers.
- Students and families: discipline, safety and hard conversations.
- School AI rules: deciding how staff and students may use AI and protecting student data.
- Checking AI help: generated reports and policy text can be wrong, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.
How the job is changing
Principals are now expected to set rules for AI in their schools, covering homework, staff use and student privacy. For a starting point, see our guide to an AI policy for employees. This page is general information, not career advice.
See also will AI replace teachers?, will AI replace school counselors? and will AI replace instructional coordinators?
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for elementary middle and high school principals at $105,870 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The typical education needed to enter is: master's degree. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace school principals?
The BLS projects little or no change in employment from 2025 to 2035 and links jobs to enrollment and budgets, not AI.
How exposed are principals to AI?
The ILO rates education managers, the closest group, at minimal exposure with a score of 0.36.
How many openings are expected?
About 20,600 a year on average over the decade, according to the BLS, mostly to replace workers who leave.
What affects principal jobs?
The BLS points to student enrollment, the number of schools, and state and local budgets.