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Will AI replace farm workers? The data

Updated

Agricultural workers maintain crops and tend livestock. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics lists their duties as planting, inspecting and harvesting crops, irrigating soil and maintaining ditches, pipes and pumps, operating and servicing farm machinery, applying fertilizer and pesticides, moving plants and trees, and feeding, checking, marking and herding livestock. The BLS groups them as agricultural equipment operators, animal breeders, crop, nursery and greenhouse farmworkers, and farm and ranch animal farmworkers.

The short answer: generative AI is not the pressure on this job, machinery is. The ILO's 2025 index rates crop, livestock and mixed farm labourers as not exposed, with scores from 0.09 to 0.12, among the lowest of any occupation. The BLS projects employment of agricultural workers to decline 2 percent from 2025 to 2035, because farms keep adopting technology that raises each worker's output, while equipment operator jobs grow. It still expects about 111,500 openings a year. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.

How exposed farm workers are

The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).

Occupation (ISCO-08)ILO categoryMean task score (0 to 1)
Crop Farm LabourersNot exposed0.09
Mixed Crop and Livestock Farm LabourersNot exposed0.11
Livestock Farm LabourersNot exposed0.12

These scores measure generative AI, which works with text, images and data. Most farm work is physical work outdoors, so the scores are low. They do not measure robots or self-driving machines, which is where the change in this job comes from.

What the BLS projects

OccupationProjected change 2025 to 2035Openings a year
Agricultural workersDecline 2%About 111,500

The BLS says that despite increased demand for crops and other agricultural products, demand for some types of farmworkers is expected to be limited as farms continue to use technologies that increase farmworkers' productivity. It expects employment of agricultural equipment operators to grow much faster than average, faster than any other type of agricultural worker, because more mechanization, such as automated tractors, robotic harvesters and advanced irrigation systems, is expected to lead to more jobs for equipment operators relative to farmworkers and laborers.

Most openings will come from replacing workers who leave the occupation, not from growth.

Where automation is taking on work

  • Driving and steering, with automated tractors, as the BLS describes.
  • Picking, with robotic harvesters for some crops.
  • Watering, with advanced irrigation systems.
  • Records and planning on the farm office side, where software and AI tools are used more than in the field.

What stays with farm workers

  • Hands-on crop work: planting, inspecting and harvesting, especially where machines cannot yet do it well.
  • Animal care: feeding livestock, spotting illness or injury and giving vaccines.
  • Running machinery: operating, servicing and repairing the equipment that does more of the work, the fastest-growing part of the job.
  • Checking AI help: generated advice on spraying, planting or animal health can be wrong, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.

How the job is changing

On BLS projections, farm work is shifting from manual labor toward operating machines, with fewer general farmworker jobs and more equipment operator jobs. Generative AI plays a small part. Learning to run and maintain modern farm equipment is the clearest way to move with the change. This page is general information, not career advice.

See also will AI replace farmers?, will AI replace agricultural technicians? and will AI replace agricultural engineers?

Pay and how to get in

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for agricultural workers at $35,890 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The BLS says the education needed to enter varies; its profile explains the routes in. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.

Questions and answers

Will AI replace farm workers?

Generative AI is unlikely to; the ILO rates farm labourers as not exposed. The BLS projects a 2 percent decline from 2025 to 2035 because of farm machinery and other productivity technology, with about 111,500 openings a year.

How exposed are farm workers to AI?

The ILO scores crop farm labourers at 0.09, mixed crop and livestock farm labourers at 0.11 and livestock farm labourers at 0.12, all not exposed.

Which farm jobs are growing?

The BLS expects agricultural equipment operators to grow much faster than average, as automated tractors, robotic harvesters and advanced irrigation spread.

Do farm workers need a degree?

No. The BLS says most agricultural workers do not need a formal educational credential, though animal breeders typically need a high school diploma.

Sources