Jails and prisons use software for records, scheduling, video monitoring and inmate tracking, and AI tools can draft reports. Correctional officers still supervise people face to face, keep order, respond to incidents and make judgment calls under pressure.
The short answer: jobs are projected to shrink, but because of fewer people in prison, not AI. The ILO's 2025 index rates prison guards as not exposed to generative AI, with a score of 0.14. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a 7 percent decline for correctional officers and bailiffs from 2025 to 2035, with about 30,000 openings a year. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.
How exposed correctional officers are
The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO category | Mean task score (0 to 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Prison Guards | Not exposed | 0.14 |
The ILO index measures generative AI. Cameras, sensors and other monitoring technology are a different matter and are not what this score covers.
What the BLS projects
| Occupation | Projected change 2025 to 2035 | Openings a year |
|---|---|---|
| Correctional officers and jailers | Decline 7% | In total |
| Bailiffs | Decline 2% | In total |
| Correctional officers and bailiffs, total | Decline 7% | About 30,000 |
The BLS says changes to criminal laws have a large effect on how many people are arrested and incarcerated, and that shorter sentences, alternatives to incarceration and community rehabilitation programs may reduce prison populations. It says bailiff demand depends on courtroom security needs but faces state and local budget pressure. Its outlook does not mention AI. Openings stay high because many workers leave the job each year.
Where AI is helping
- Incident reports and shift logs.
- Scheduling and staffing.
- Records and case management.
- Flagging events on video for a person to review.
What stays with correctional officers
- Supervision: being present, reading situations and de-escalating.
- Safety: searches, counts, escorts and emergency response.
- Judgment: decisions about people that carry legal and human consequences.
- Checking AI help: drafted reports can contain errors that end up in legal records, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.
How the job is changing
Paperwork goes faster and monitoring is more digital, but staffing levels follow policy and prison populations. Workers should also know how monitoring data about their own work is used. This page is general information, not legal advice.
See also will AI replace security guards?, will AI replace judges? and AI monitoring at work
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for correctional officers at $58,850 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The typical education needed to enter is: high school diploma or equivalent. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace correctional officers?
Not on current evidence. The ILO rates prison guards as not exposed, and the projected BLS decline is tied to policy and prison populations, not AI.
Why are correctional officer jobs projected to decline?
The BLS points to shorter sentences, alternatives to incarceration and rehabilitation programs that may reduce prison populations.
How many openings are expected?
The BLS projects about 30,000 openings a year for correctional officers and bailiffs, mostly to replace workers who leave.
What correctional work stays human?
Supervising people, keeping order, emergency response and checking AI-drafted reports.