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Will AI replace aircraft mechanics? Predictive maintenance and the data

Updated

Airlines already stream engine and system data from aircraft in flight, and software predicts which parts are likely to need attention. Aircraft mechanics and avionics technicians still inspect, repair and sign off on the work before a plane flies again.

The short answer: current evidence does not point to AI replacing aircraft mechanics. The ILO's 2025 index rates aircraft engine mechanics and repairers as not exposed to generative AI, with a score of 0.19. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 6 percent growth for aircraft and avionics equipment mechanics and technicians from 2025 to 2035, faster than average, with about 13,100 openings a year. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.

How exposed aircraft mechanics are

The International Labour Organization scores occupations' tasks from 0 (cannot be automated with generative AI) to 1 (could be done without a human operator), and groups them into gradients from 1 to 4, with 4 the most exposed; below them sit minimal exposure and not exposed (ILO Working Paper 140, 2025).

Occupation (ISCO-08)ILO categoryMean task score (0 to 1)
Aircraft Engine Mechanics and RepairersNot exposed0.19

The ILO index measures generative AI. Robots, drones and automated inspection equipment are a different technology and are not what this score covers.

What the BLS projects

OccupationProjected change 2025 to 2035Openings a year
Aircraft mechanics and service techniciansGrow 5%In total
Avionics techniciansGrow 9%In total
Aircraft and avionics mechanics and technicians, totalGrow 6%About 13,100

The BLS says growing demand for passenger travel and goods transportation will increase air traffic, and that more sophisticated aircraft systems add to the need for these workers. It adds that the developing space industry may also create jobs. Its outlook does not mention AI.

Where AI is helping

  • Predicting part wear from engine and flight data.
  • Searching maintenance manuals and past repair records.
  • Planning inspections, parts and hangar schedules.
  • Drafting work orders and maintenance logs.

What stays with aircraft mechanics

  • Inspection: finding cracks, leaks and wear with hands and eyes.
  • Repair: replacing parts and testing systems to strict procedures.
  • Sign-off: a certified person answers for an aircraft's return to service.
  • Checking AI help: AI answers about procedures or part numbers can be wrong, so the approved manual wins, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). See checking AI output.

How the job is changing

More maintenance is planned from data before a problem shows up, and avionics work grows as aircraft carry more electronics. Mechanics who can read diagnostic data alongside hands-on skills have more options.

See also will AI replace mechanics?, will AI replace pilots? and will AI replace air traffic controllers?

Pay and how to get in

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for aircraft and avionics equipment mechanics and technicians at $80,180 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. The typical education needed to enter is: postsecondary nondegree award. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.

Questions and answers

Will AI replace aircraft mechanics?

Not on current evidence. The ILO rates aircraft engine mechanics as not exposed, and the BLS projects 6 percent growth from 2025 to 2035.

Which aviation maintenance jobs grow fastest?

The BLS projects 9 percent growth for avionics technicians and 5 percent for aircraft mechanics and service technicians.

How many openings are expected?

The BLS projects about 13,100 openings a year for aircraft and avionics equipment mechanics and technicians.

What aircraft maintenance work stays human?

Inspection, repair, sign-off and checking AI answers against approved manuals.

Sources