Actuaries spend their days with data, models and spreadsheets, so they are often listed among the professions AI could take over. The data tells a more interesting story: the work is fairly exposed task by task, but demand is projected to grow faster than average, because AI and more data create more risk to price and more models to check.
The short answer: current evidence does not point to AI replacing actuaries. The ILO's 2025 index places mathematicians, actuaries and statisticians in its significant-exposure band. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 9 percent growth for actuaries from 2025 to 2035, linked to new risks, enterprise risk management and the growing volume of data insurers collect. Coding, data preparation and first drafts are moving to AI; judgment about assumptions, and signing off on the result, stay with actuaries. Projections can be revised.
How exposed actuarial work is
The ILO's 2025 index scores tasks from 0 to 1 for generative AI exposure; gradient 3 means a significant share of tasks is exposed, but not all.
| Occupation (ISCO-08) | ILO band | Mean task score |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical, Finance and Insurance Clerks | Gradient 4 (highest) | 0.64 |
| Financial Analysts | Gradient 4 (highest) | 0.62 |
| Statistical, Mathematical and Related Associate Professionals | Gradient 3 | 0.57 |
| Mathematicians, Actuaries and Statisticians | Gradient 3 | 0.56 |
| Insurance Representatives | Gradient 3 | 0.53 |
The ILO groups actuaries with mathematicians and statisticians, so the score reflects that whole group. Actuaries sit slightly below the clerical and analyst roles that process insurance and financial data.
What the BLS projects
The BLS describes actuaries as using mathematics, statistics and financial theory to analyze the economic costs of risk and uncertainty. It projects 9 percent growth from 2025 to 2035, with about 1,500 openings a year. It expects actuaries to be needed to develop, price and evaluate insurance products and calculate the costs of new risks, to help companies with enterprise risk management, and to analyze the large amount of information, such as medical or property data, that insurers collect (BLS, actuaries). It also notes that candidates must pass a series of exams.
By contrast, the BLS projects a 4 percent decline for insurance underwriters, citing automated underwriting software (BLS, insurance underwriters). The difference is that underwriting applies models to individual cases, while actuaries build and stand behind the models.
Where AI fits in actuarial work
- Writing and debugging code for data preparation and models.
- Cleaning and exploring large datasets.
- Drafting reports, memos and documentation of methods.
- Summarizing regulations, guidance and research.
- Producing first versions of charts and sensitivity tables.
What stays with the actuary
- Assumptions: choosing and defending what the model assumes about the future.
- Model validity: knowing when a model no longer fits. The NIST AI RMF lists valid and reliable among the characteristics of trustworthy AI, including whether a system performs as intended beyond the conditions it was built for (NIST AI RMF 1.0).
- Checking AI-written code and text: AI can produce confident but wrong output, which NIST calls confabulation (NIST AI 600-1). A small coding error can move a reserve a long way.
- New and unusual risks without much historical data.
- Explaining results to boards, regulators and business leaders.
- Professional responsibility for the work they sign.
Where the job is heading
AI is making actuaries faster at the mechanical parts of the job and creating new work around it: pricing AI-related risks, reviewing models built with AI, and helping insurers use more data responsibly. Entry-level tasks that were mostly data preparation are under the most pressure. Actuaries who combine technical depth with judgment and communication have the edge.
See also will AI replace insurance agents?, will AI replace data analysts? and will AI take my job?
Pay and how to get in
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the median annual pay for actuaries at $130,000 in May 2025, against $50,980 for all workers. Across the 2 BLS occupations this page covers, median pay ranges from $81,370 to $130,000. The typical education needed to enter is: bachelor's degree. See how this job compares in AI exposure by pay and AI exposure by education level.
Questions and answers
Will AI replace actuaries?
Not on current evidence. The BLS projects 9 percent US growth for actuaries from 2025 to 2035, linked to new risks, enterprise risk management and growing volumes of insurance data.
How exposed are actuaries to AI?
The ILO places mathematicians, actuaries and statisticians in gradient 3, significant exposure, with a mean task score of 0.56.
What actuarial work can AI do?
Coding and debugging, data preparation, first drafts of reports and documentation, and summaries of guidance, all of which need checking.
Why are actuaries less at risk than underwriters?
Underwriting applies models to individual cases, which automated software increasingly does; the BLS projects a 4 percent decline for underwriters. Actuaries build, validate and sign off on the models.
Is becoming an actuary still worth it?
US projections expect much faster than average growth, though openings are relatively few, about 1,500 a year. Candidates must pass a series of exams.